TO: MARSHA BLACKBURN FOR U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGN
FROM: DAVID LEE, TONY FABRIZIO & TRAVIS TUNIS
RE: TRUMP, BLACKBURN BOTH HAVE BIG LEADS IN TENNESSEE
DATE: NOVEMBER 1, 2023
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates recently completed a statewide survey among 800 likely 2024 Tennessee general election voters (See methodology statements and key demographics on last page). Strong majorities of Tennessee voters choose the Republican candidate in both the Presidential and Senate ballots, showing that Tennessee continues to be a reliably Republican state.
After easily winning the Volunteer State in 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump once again holds a big lead over Joe Biden in the Tennessee Presidential election. Trump leads Biden, 58% – 35%, with just 7% undecided. Furthermore, an outright majority (51%) are “definitely voting” for President Trump, giving him a huge advantage in the battle to win Tennessee’s 11 electoral voters.
While some on the left want the public to believe that Gloria Johnson is a threat to win the Senate seat, the reality is that Senator Blackburn leads her by a sizable 20-point margin, 56% – 36%. A near majority of 46% say they are “definitely voting” for Senator Blackburn. It would take a gargantuan effort from Johnson to even have a chance to knock off the popular incumbent.
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted a survey of 800 voters in Tennessee who are likely to vote in the 2024 general election, from October 15-18, 2023. The interviews were split 30% live-operator landline/35% live-operator cell/35% SMS to web. Geography was matched to votes cast in previous presidential-year elections in Tennessee. Gender, age, race/ethnicity, party affiliation, and education were matched to demographic profiles of likely voters based on the voter file, AP VoteCast, and exit poll data. Respondents were randomly selected from lists of known registered voters. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence interval is ±3.46%.